Dalian iron ore rebounds on fresh China stimulus hopes, seasonal steel demand

Singapore – Dalian iron ore futures prices rebounded on Thursday, buoyed by hopes of more fiscal stimulus from top consumer China and firmer seasonal demand for steel products.

The most-traded January iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended morning trade 1.15% higher at 792.5 yuan ($112.19) a metric ton, after falling more than 4% in the previous session.

The benchmark November iron ore on the Singapore Exchange was 2.16% higher at $107.15 a ton, as of 0330 GMT.

China’s finance ministry will detail plans on fiscal stimulus to boost the economy at a highly-expected news conference on Saturday, the government’s main information office said on Wednesday, signalling more forceful policies to revive growth.

The statement boosted speculation of more stimulus measures, supporting iron ore futures, ANZ analysts said in a note.

“We continue to expect a fiscal stimulus push in the coming weeks and months and have upgraded our 2025 growth forecast from 4.6% to 4.8% year-on-year in anticipation of stronger policy support,” said ING analysts.

On Thursday, China shares rose at open after the People’s Bank of China kicked off a swap programme aimed at lifting the stock market.

Meanwhile, there are signs that recent policy support measures are stabilising China’s steel market, said the ANZ analysts.

“Prices of spot rebar rose to their highest level in more than two months, and steel mill margins have also improved in recent weeks,” ANZ said.

Robust seasonal demand in the steel market’s key “golden October” period is also supporting an improvement in the supply-demand balance for industrial steel products, said Chinese consultancy Steelhome.

Other steelmaking ingredients on the DCE were mixed, with coking coal DJMcv1 down 0.77%, while coke  was up 0.16%.

Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange traded sideways. Rebar edged 0.14% higher, hot-rolled coil ticked up 0.36%, stainless steel dipped 0.07%, and wire rod was flat.